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Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
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Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3
Tuesday, December 26
Matchup Skinny Edge
UTAH vs. WEST VIRGINIA (Heart of Dallas Bowl)...Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is 9-1 SU and 7-3 vs. spread in bowls with Utes. Utah 9-3 vs. line this season and 13-5 last 18 on board, also 15-4 vs. points last 19 vs. non-Pac 12 opposition. WVU and Dana Holgorsen 0-4 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2012 and only 2-8 last ten as underdog.
Utah, based on team trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. DUKE (Quick Lane Bowl)... NIU no covers in its last four bowls 2012-15. Huskies closed 2017 on 2-6 spread skid. Though did cover all four non-MAC games this season. Cutcliffe 40-23-1 vs. spread since 2013 and has covered three bowls in a row.
Duke, based on team trends.
KANSAS STATE vs. UCLA (Cactus Bowl)...Teams met in 2014 Alamo Bowl won by UCLA, 40-35. Bruins 0-6 SU, 1-5 vs. line away from Rose Bowl TY, now 10 SU losses in row away from home, and 3-10-1 last 14 vs. points away from Rose Bowl. Bill Snyder only 2-5 SU and vs, line last seven years in bowls, but 5-2-1 vs. spread last eight away from Manhattan.
Kansas State, based on team trends.

Wednesday, December 27
Matchup Skinny Edge
SOUTHERN MISS vs. FLORIDA STATE (Independence Bowl)...FSU 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, also 2-9 vs. spread this season. USM 8-4 vs. line in 2017, 10-4 last 14 vs. number since late 2016, and 5-1 last six as dog.
Southern Miss, based on team trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. IOWA (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...BC closed this season on 8-0-1 spread tear. Addazio now 7-1-1 last 9 as dog. Ferentz no covers last three or four of last five bowls, and Iowa just 1-4-1 vs. line last six away from Iowa City.
Boston College, based on team trends.
MISSOURI vs. TEXAS (Texas Bowl)...Mizzou closed hot covering 7 of last 8 this season, but Tom Herman 4-1 as dog this season, and his Houston and Texas teams are 9-1 as a dog since 2015. Horns were 7-3-1 vs. line themselves down stretch in 2016.
Slight to Texas, based on Herman dog trends.
PURDUE vs. ARIZONA (Foster Farms Bowl)...Brohm covered bowls the past two seasons at WKU, and his Tops and Purdue teams are 28-15-1 vs. spread their last 44 games on the board. Brohm teams also 5-2-1 last eight as dog. Arizona 1-5 vs. line last six bowls, Rich-Rod 1-3 vs. points in bowls with Cats. Arizona closed season 0-4 vs. spread and is 7-19 last 26 on board since late 2015.
Purdue, based on team trends.

Thursday, December 28
Matchup Skinny Edge
VIRGINIA at NAVY (Military Bowl)...Mids have covered four straight in bowls but were only 0-3-2 vs. spread at Annapolis this season. Bronco Mendenhall, however, failed to cover his last three bowl tries with BYU.
Slight to Navy, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at OKLAHOMA STATE (Camping World Bowl)...Fuente 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls at Memphis and VPI. Hokies just 2-3 as dog since last season but 6-3 vs. points last 9 away from Blacksburg. Gundy just 4-5 vs. spread last nine bowls. Cowboys “over” 13-7 last 20 since early 2016.
Slight to Virginia Tech and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
STANFORD vs. TCU (Alamo Bowl)...Stanford 4-1-2 vs. spread last seven bowls. David Shaw 3-1 as dog this season and now 11-3-1 as dog since taking over on Farm in 2011. Gary Patterson just 2-6 vs. number last eight bowls and Frogs just 10-16 overall vs. spread since last season.
Stanford, based on team trends.
MICHIGAN STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (Holiday Bowl)...Mark Dantonio has covered 4 of last 5 bowls but had failed to cover three in a row prior. MSU 2-2 as dog this season, now 19-7 in role since 2011 season. Leach 1-4 as chalk away from Pullman since last season.
Michigan State, based on team trends.

Friday, December 29
Matchup Skinny Edge
TEXAS A&M vs. WAKE FOREST (Belk Bowl)...Wake 9-3 vs. spread this season, 21-9 last 30 on board since late 2015. A&M no covers last two or 3 of last 4 bowls, 6-19 vs. spread in last five games of season since 2013.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.
NC STATE vs. ARIZONA STATE (Sun Bowl)...ASU improved to 7-4-1 vs. spread this season, 7-2-1 last ten in 2017. Also 5-1 as dog this season. Doeren 2-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with NCS, though Pack only 4-7-1 vs. line this season. NCS also “under” 13-5 last 18 since mid 2016.
Arizona State and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
KENTUCKY vs. NORTHWESTERN (Music City Bowl)...UK stumbled down the stretch, covering just 1 of last 8 this season, Mark Stoops just 2-9 vs. points last nine outside of SEC. UK also no covers its last three bowls since 2009. Meanwhile NU covered last 7 and 9 of last 10 this season.
Northwestern, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE vs. NEW MEXICO STATE (Arizona Bowl)...NMSU first bowl since 1960! Las Cruces 9-6-1 last 16 as dog, cooled a bit down stretch this season after opening 4-0-1 vs. spread, now 13-9-1 last 23 on board since early LY. But 6-0-1 last seven vs. spread outside of Sun Belt. Utags “over” 13-5-1 last 19 since mid 2016.
Slight to New Mexico State and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SOUTHERN CAL vs. OHIO STATE (Cotton Bowl)...Trojans on 4-10 spread skid since late 2016, 7-15 vs. points last 22 away from Coliseum. SC no covers last three and four of last five bowls, and Trojans also 1–9 last ten as dog. Urban 14-7 vs. spread last 21 away from Big Horseshoe and has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls/playoffs with Buckeyes.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

Saturday, December 30
Matchup Skinny Edge
LOUISVILLE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Taxslayer Bowl)...MSU 3-4 vs. line in bowls since 2010, but Bulldogs also 15-7 their last 22 as dog since late 2013. 'Ville covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 this season after extended slump prior in which it was 1-10 previous 11 vs. spread.
Mississippi State, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at MEMPHIS (Liberty Bowl)...Memphis has been pounded the past two seasons in bowls. In last 16 games with spread of 10 or fewer, Tigers just 6-10 vs. points, suggesting bully characteristics. ISU 6-1-1 vs. spread down stretch TY, 8-2-2 overall vs. line, 7-3-1 last 11 as dog. Cyclones also 15-5-2 vs. spread last 22 on board for HC Matt Campbell.
Iowa State, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON vs. PENN STATE (Fiesta Bowl)...James Franklin cooled a bit late in the season while dropping 3 of last 4 vs. line, but had covered 16 of 18 prior. Franklin 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls at Vandy and Penn State. Huskies just 6-6 vs. spread last 12 away from Seattle and Petersen 1-2 vs. spread in bowls with U-Dub.
Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.
WISCONSIN at MIAMI-FLA. (Orange Bowl)...If counting last year as a W at Cotton vs. WMU, Badgers have covered three straight in bowls, and are 20-8-1 last 29 overall vs. number since late 2015. Canes no covers last three this season and were only 5-7 vs. line for Richt TY.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.

Monday, January 1
Matchup Skinny Edge
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. MICHIGAN (Outback Bowl)...Teams met in this same game five years ago won by SC, 33-28. Harbaugh only 7-11-1 vs. spread last 19 on board, meanwhile Muschamp on 8-4-1 spread uptick since late LY. Gamecocks 7-0-1 last 8 as dog as well.
South Carolina, based on team trends.
UCF vs. AUBURN (Peach Bowl)...UCF 15-9-1 vs. line since last season (counts Cincy TY as win), 8-3 last 11 vs. line away from home. Malzahn 1-2 SU and vs. line last three bowls, only 6-12 last 18 on board overall (6-7 TY).
UCF, based on team trends.
LSU vs. NOTRE DAME (Citrus Bowl)...Ed Orgeron covered last six this season and is 13-6-1 vs. points since taking over Tigers just before midseason LY. Also 7-1-1 vs. line away from Baton Rouge. Irish faded down stretch TY with no covers last four, and Brian Kelly just 1-4 vs. line last five bowls.
LSU, based on team trends.
GEORGIA vs. OKLAHOMA (CFP Rose Bowl)...Sooners just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 bowl games. OU also only 3-4 vs. spread away from Norman TY. Georgia on 10-4 spread uptick for Kirby Smart since late LY. Also 8-1 vs. spread last nine away from Athens.
Georgia, based on team trends.
ALABAMA vs. CLEMSON (CFP Sugar Bowl)...Clemson has covered this matchup in playoffs past two years. “Big Game” Dabo now 9-1 vs. line last ten in bowls/conference title games. Tigers covered last four down stretch and now on 11-4-1 spread run since late LY. Saban only 5-8 vs. points last 13 on board.
Clemson, based on team trends.

· BetDSI: Props - Shane Buechele
· WR Jeff Thomas will return to Miami
· SMU QB Hicks to transfer to Arkansas
· Irish QB Wimbush transferring to UCF
· Tactics questioned in USU investigation
· OU hires Roy Manning as CBs coach
· Wash. St. establishes Gleason Institute
· EKU to host five, face Louisville
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