Ohio State at Michigan State
November 7, 2018
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By Tom Wilkinson
College Football Betting Preview – Ohio State at Michigan State
One of the best offenses in the country faces one of the best defenses in the nation, as the Ohio State Buckeyes visit the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday on FOX. The Buckeyes are 10th in the country in points per game at just over 42 points per game, while the Spartans are 16th in defense, allowing just 19 points per contest. The Buckeyes are listed as slight road favorites in this contest. Let’s look at this matchup and college football picks.
Date and Time: Saturday, November 10, 2018, 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
College Football Odds at BetDSI: Ohio State -3.5, O/U 54
Ohio State vs. Michigan State TV Coverage: FOX
The Buckeyes still have hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff, but they can’t afford another loss and this game against Michigan State looks a lot tougher now than it did a few weeks ago. The Spartans have won their last two games and the defense is playing really well. The defense for Michigan State has a point to prove after they were thrashed last year, losing 48-3 to OSU. “Last year, they had their way,” Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio said to the media, “So we’re gonna have to play very, very well. And we’re gonna have to know what they do and be on top of our game.”
Ohio State has not been a good team against the spread on the road, going 0-3. The Spartans have gone over the total in two of those three games. The Spartans have not been good at home vs. the number, as they are 1-4 ATS. They have gone over in three of their five home games.
If we call the matchup between the Ohio State offense and the Michigan State defense a draw, then this game comes down to the Ohio State defense vs. the Michigan State offense. The Ohio State defense isn’t very good, but the Spartans don’t have a great offense. Michigan State also has an injury problem, as quarterback Brian Lewerke has a right shoulder injury.
Doctors have said that Lewerke can’t damage his shoulder any further by playing, so it is just a matter of pain. The problem for MSU is that Lewerke has admitted that his shoulder is affecting his passes. He should get a lot of chances to make plays against Ohio State, as the Buckeyes have given up 29.2 points per game in their last five games.
Matchup to Watch
It will be interesting to watch the Ohio State offense going up against the Michigan State defense. The Spartans are No. 1 in the country in rushing defense, allowing just 71.7 yards per game. They are just 98th in pass defense, so the Buckeyes will try and throw on Saturday to win this game. Ohio State loves to run the ball, but this game comes down to the Ohio State passing attack against the MSU pass defense.
The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Michigan State. The Buckeyes are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games on grass. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Looking at the total, the Over is 7-2 in the Buckeyes last 9 road games. The Under is 4-0 in the Spartans last 4 games overall. The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Picks
I don’t trust Ohio State, but I just don’t know how Michigan State is going to keep up with the Buckeyes in terms of scoring points. I lean a little bit to the Buckeyes, but I think the better choice is to play the total. Ohio State can’t stop opposing offenses, so this game should turn into a shootout that goes over the total.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Pick: Over 54 at BetDSI
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Score Prediction: Ohio State 33, Michigan State 27
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