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Joe Nelson - About Me

Joe Nelson has been a regular on the Vegas Insider leader board since 2006. Well known for producing the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet football newsletter, Nelson provides his very best picks to Vegas Insider clients.
The 2013-14 football season was especially profitable for Nelson, finishing as the Vegas Insider win percentage leader in BOTH the NFL and college football at 60%, finishing as the money leader in the NFL and #2 in money earned in college football amongst the deep and excellent field of handicappers at Vegas Insider. Few handicappers have ever been able to put together such strong finishes in both disciplines in the same season.
Nelson has also produced strong seasons in basketball and baseball in addition to the success in football as a long list of documented top finishes on Vegas Insider indicates. Nelson was also the champion of the prestigious Wise Guys Football Contest in 2011, besting a field of 72 national handicappers and then went on to finish 2nd in the same contest in 2012 for impressive back-to-back finishes.
With a statistics background and years of experience working with several established handicappers as well as over a decade as a professional handicapper, Nelson provides a unique approach with traditional methods as well as innovative strategies. Nelson’s handicapping focuses on team situations, schedule analysis, and line evaluation as well as following a variety of statistical indicators that are incorporated into the process.
You can find regular blog posts and articles for insight and commentary throughout the year and be sure to consider getting on board for a successful season.

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By Joe Nelson
Posted 01/14/2019 at 02:47 PM

The 14-1 playoff underdog run came to a halt last week and favorites were a missed field goal away from sweeping the divisional round contests. With the upsets in the wild card round, three of last week’s teams were in a daunting third consecutive road game though the Eagles nearly overcame the taxing late season schedule in an exciting finish before the late interception.
Nine of the past 10 #1 seeds in the NFL Playoffs have made the Super Bowl including five straight in the AFC, though that team has been the Patriots in three of the past five years. Kansas City is seeking its first Super Bowl trip since Super Bowl IV in 1970, the only Super Bowl championship for the franchise. New England is seeking its 11th appearance, already with five titles.
While the Chiefs are a newcomer to the AFC Championship in recent years, Andy Reid coached in five conference championship games with the Eagles, losing four of those games but getting to the Super Bowl in 2005 where they lost to the Patriots. Bill Belichick is 6-2 in his career vs. Reid, though just 3-5 ATS. The Patriots and Chiefs have split four meetings since 2014 with the Chiefs 3-1 ATS but the Patriots winning and covering in the playoff meeting three years ago.
In now six of the past seven seasons the NFC Championship has featured the #1 and #2 seeds. The #2 seed won just one of those five matchups vs. the #1 seed. Sean Payton coached in the NFC Championship in his first season as a head coach, losing to the Bears 39-14 in January 2007. He made it back to the Championship three years later as the Saints won one of the most memorable NFC Championships ever in overtime against the Vikings before winning the Super Bowl. Counting the playoffs Payton owns a 126-79 career record as a head coach and will have a chance to cement his legacy as an all-time great with two more wins.
Sean McVay’s rise has been impressive going 25-9 in two years and the league has been scrambling copy his methods and find another young rising star in the coaching ranks. McVay will turn 33 later this month and he’ll hope he’ll be preparing for the Super Bowl with his team. If the Rams win the Super Bowl he’ll surpass Mike Tomlin as the youngest coach to win the championship, with Tomlin winning in his second season with Pittsburgh at 36 and still searching for his second despite a 133-73-1 career record.
 The league’s top four scoring teams are the four teams remaining in the playoff bracket. The top remaining scoring defense is actually New England who finished 7th, followed by the Saints (14th), the Rams (20th), and the Chiefs (24th). All four quarterbacks were top 10 Total QBR performers this season and these were four of the league’s top five teams in net scoring differential on the season as it is hard to make a case against this quartet being the most deserving semifinalists this season and the lines suggest great games are ahead. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…



By Joe Nelson
Posted 01/07/2019 at 04:40 PM

Backing the more experienced quarterback netted a 4-0 ATS result in the wild card round last week though with some unusual quirky results. The Chargers posted just 3.7 yards per play winning in Baltimore with 243 total yards. Statistically it was a similar game to the Bills/Jaguars result last season though with more scoring as four field goals in the game came on drives of 16 or fewer yards. If quarterback experience dictates the results this week that means fading the AFC’s top seed as the least experienced quarterback remaining is the likely MVP leading the Chiefs in Patrick Mahomes. The biggest disparity in playoff experience at quarterback is actually the Chargers/Patriots games as Tom Brady has played 17 more playoff games than Philip Rivers, though Rivers has the third most playoff games under his belt in the remaining field.
The Bears/Eagles game will go down an infamy for the double-ding kick finish and the box score provided many bizarre anomalies. Chicago had more yards, more yards per play, more rushing yards, more yards per rush, more passing yards, more yards per attempt, a better QB Rating, and two fewer turnovers. No touchdowns in three red zone trips, suspect clock management, a few costly penalties along with one of the more unusual officiating decisions in recent history, and the final missed field goal were factors in a painful Bears loss. Since 1990 postseason road teams with a -2 or worse turnover margin are now 5-83 S/U with the Eagles adding to the win column Sunday.
Underdogs are now on a 14-1 playoff run since the start of last season’s playoffs. The lone cover by a favorite came in the divisional round by the Patriots hosting the Titans, who had won as a massive underdog in Kansas City in the wild card round. New England is 13-2 S/U and 9-5-1 in their opening playoff games in the Bill Belichick era including winning seven straight divisional round games with only one missed cover in that span. New England has hosted a divisional round game as a top two AFC seed now in nine consecutive seasons but none of those games were against the Chargers. The Patriots won in San Diego in the divisional round in the 2006-07 season and beat the Chargers in the AFC Championship in the 2007-08 season.
The Cowboys and Seahawks already have an infamous playoff game in their histories but Saturday’s result will be long remembered in gambling circles. With kicker Sebastian Janikowski injured Seattle didn’t kick a field goal on 4th down trailing by 10 and then after getting the touchdown went for two without a proven kicker, getting the conversion and ultimately covering the spread for many, though the number fluctuated from +2½ down to +1 and back up to close at +3. Those on the ‘under’ may have had the more painful result with that game the only wild card game going ‘over’ with 22 4th quarter points. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…


Nelson: Tuesday's Evening Bowl Tips
Nelson: Monday's Early Bowl Tips
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 14
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 13
Nelson: 4th Quarter Covers - Week 14
14-0 NBA Guaranteed Run: 12/8/18 -12/22/18
2018 MLB #3 Totals Leader: +1,076
2017-2018 NBA Member Leader: +493
2017-2018 NBA Overall Money: +1,053
2017-2018 NCAA BK #2 Percent Leader: 57%
2017-2018 NCAA BK Overall Money: +2,129
2017 MLB #3 Totals Leader: +682
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Money Leader: +1,709
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Percent Leader: 56%
2014 MLB #3 Favorites Leader: +1,100
2013-2014 NBA #3 Totals Leader: +993
2013-2014 NFL Money Leader: +1,340
2013-2014 NFL Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NFL Guaranteed Leader: +805
2013-2014 NCAA FB Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NCAA FB #2 Money Leader: +1,446
2013-2014 NCAA FB #3 Member Leader: +940
2012-2013 NFL #2 Member Leader: +200
2012-2013 NCAA FB Guaranteed Leader: +722
2012 MLB Guaranteed Leader: +2,480
2012 #2 MLB Totals Leader: +1,208
2011-2012 NBA #2 Money Leader: +1,219
2011-2012 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 55%
2011-2012 NBA #3 Member Leader: +711
2011 MLB #3 Underdog Leader: +1,607
2011 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,789
2008-2009 NCAA BK Guaranteed Leader: +1,250
2007-2008 NCAA BK Member Leader: +1,450
2008 MLB #2 Guaranteed Leader: +2,236
2007-2008 NFL #3 Money Leader: +1,470
2006-2007 NCAA FB Member Leader
2006-2007 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 54%
2006 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,238
2006 MLB #3 Money Leader: +214

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Joe Nelson's NFL Picks
Period: 12/21/2018 to 01/21/2019
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 10-8-2 ( 55.6% , +148)
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01/14/2019 at 02:47 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 14

01/07/2019 at 04:40 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 7

12/31/2018 at 02:14 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 31

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