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Most Passing Yards Odds
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2018 NFL Odds: Most Passing Yards

Over the years, the NFL has changed in a number of different ways, not the least of which is that the running game has taken a definite backseat to passing. This is not to suggest that running backs are not an essential part of a good team, but you need only look at how their value has fallen in recent years to see that it’s all about the QB and the deep ball.

With the 2018 season just around the corner, it’s time to start thinking about which QB is going to put it big numbers. The odds are up at, so I am going to make my pick to win this thing. Let’s take a look at the 5 favorites and then decide from there.

Tom Brady (+400) – Five time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady is always a good bet, but there are a couple of knocks against him here, the first of which is that he will not have Julian Edelman to throw to for the first 4 games of the season. You also need to consider than Brady is now 41 years old, and while he has shown no signs of slowing down, age gets to everyone eventually.

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Drew Brees (+500) – New Orleans Saints star QB Drew Brees is another player who has amassed a ton of yards over the years, mostly because the Saints had no running game to speak of. They now have a 2-headed monster in Ingram and Kamara, which means some of the pressure will be off the QB. He’ll get his yards, but I’m not convinced he leads the way.

Phillip Rivers (+850) – There are a lot of folks looking at the Chargers as a potential dark horse this season, which they may well be if they can avoid getting off to another slow start. Rivers will be the key man here, but again, I’m not sure if he will put up the numbers to better some of the other guys on this list.

Aaron Rodgers (+1000) – In my opinion, this is a fantastic price and one that you should take while you still can. The bookies are probably a little concerned that Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers may not hold up after missing a chunk of last season with injury. I think he’ll be fine and is a solid bet indeed.

Ben Roethlisberger (+1000) – When you have one of the best receiving groups in the league to throw to, there is always the possibility of putting up huge numbers. The thing that makes Big Ben a question mark is his durability, or lack thereof.

The rest of the field looks like this:
Matt Ryan +1400
Matthew Stafford +1200
Jimmy Garoppolo +1400
Jared Goff +2800
Kirk Cousins +2000
Carson Wentz +2700
Patrick Mahomes +2500
Andrew Luck +3300
Russell Wilson +5000
Deshaun Watson +3000
Eli Manning +4500
Derek Carr +4500
Case Keenum +6000
Blake Bortles +7500
Cam Newton +7500
Marcus Mariota +10000
Mitch Trubisky +10000
Jameis Winston +9000
Joe Flacco +12500

Potential Longshot Picks – I have a couple of longer priced QB’s that I think might take a run at the most yards in 2018. The first is Andrew Luck. Yes, there are some real concerns about his health, but if he stays healthy, he is going to be chucking that ball all over the field, as the Colts have no running game. The other pick that I really like is Deshaun Watson of the Texans. He looked great in limited time before getting hurt last season, and I like him to post some big numbers.

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