Opening Line Report - Week 6
October 9, 2018
By Joe Williams
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The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins will face each other two weeks after each had their byes. Both teams struggled on defense in their return, with Carolina barely winning and Washington getting trampled. The National Football League wanted high-scoring football and they certainly have been getting it.
The unbeaten Los Angeles Rams have averaged 34.6 points per game (PPG), and the New Orleans Saints are up to 36.0 PPG. In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs are humming along with 35.0 PPG to lead all teams in that conference. There are only five teams putting up fewer than 20.0 PPG, and that's the Miami Dolphins (19.8 PPG), Tennessee Titans (17.4), Dallas Cowboys (16.6), Arizona Cardinals (13.0), Buffalo Bills (12.6).
(Consensus Odds as of Tuesday)
Thursday, Oct. 11
Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44) at New York Giants
The Westgate Superbook opened the Eagles at -3.5, while Treasure Island had the line at -2.5. Everyone else opened the game at -3. Philly has dominated this series, going 8-3 ATS in their past 11 trips to New Jersey, while going 13-6-1 ATS in the past 20 in this series. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five meetings, and 6-0 in the past six played on the Giants' home turf.
Sunday, Oct. 14
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5, 43)
The Cardinals came up with their first win in San Francisco in Week 5, but Vegas isn't feeling them. Westgate was the only book to open them at -9.5, but it was quickly bet up to 10.5 by the middle of the afternoon on Monday. Everyone outside of Caesars/Harrah's and Treasure Island has the line at 10. The last time the Vikings were double-digit favorites at home, the Buffalo Bills upended them 27-6 in Week 3.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 44) at Cleveland Browns
The Browns have played five games, going 2-2-1 SU, and three of their contests have gone overtime. Vegas is expecting another nailbiter for the Kardiac Kids Part II. All shops have had this around -1 or -1.5, although the Westgate Superbook did have the game listed as a pick'em for a few hours on Monday afternoon.
Chicago Bears (-3, 42) at Miami Dolphins
All books have listed the Bears -3, although the Westgate opened the Bears at -2 and it was quickly bet up to -3 by Monday evening. Treasure Island has also fluctuated between -2.5 and -3 through the day on Monday.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 44.5)
The Panthers needed a 63-yard field at the buzzer to sneak by the New York Giants, while the Redskins were trampled by the New Orleans Saints on Monday night under the roof. If you're feeling the Panthers on the road, go offshore with BetOnline.ag, who opened the Panthers at -2.5 before they were bet down to -2.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5, 45)
Colts QB Andrew Luck has jacked up 245 passes through just five games, a stat that is concerning to head coach Frank Reich. The Colts have no balance and no run game to speak of. All shops have the Jets listed as -2.5 favorites at home, even TI which opened the Jets at just -2.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 53)
The Steelers had been defensively challenged until this past week when they clamped down on the Atlanta Falcons. Still, Vegas expects another high-scoring affair, especially against a Bengals team scoring 30.6 points per game (PPG) while allowing 26.0 PPG.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 57.5)
The Buccaneers are listed at -3.5 across the board, although you can get them at -3 at William Hill. BetOnline.ag opened the Falcons at -4, and the line tumbled a half-point to get in line with everyone else. The favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 in this series.
Seattle Seahawks (-3, 48) at Oakland Raiders
These former AFC West Division rivals will do battle in Oakland for the last time. The Seahawks played the unbeaten Rams as tough as anyone has, taking them to the mat before losing it late. Nearly all shops opened the Seahawks at -3, although Westgate opened the game at -2 before it was bet up to -3.
The Stratosphere also opened the game at -2.5 before getting in line with everyone else. If you hurry, Jerry's Nugget still had the games listed at -2.5 with no movement going into the overnight hours on Tuesday.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-8.5, OFF)
After Sunday night's impressive win, their second straight victory in overtime, the Texans opened as a favorite of more than a touchdown at a few shops. Most others had the line OFF. Southpoint opened the Texans as high as -9, while Westgate opened them at -8.5 before taking it off the board on Monday night. BetOnline.ag also had the Texans at -8.5, in line with the Vegas consensus early on.
Los Angeles Rams (-7, 52.5) at Denver Broncos
The Rams improved to 5-0 SU in Seattle in Week 5, but they suffered their first non-cover to slip to 4-1 ATS. The Broncos were knocked around by the Jets on the east coast, but return home. The Rams were a concensus -7 nearly all across the board, but early returns are on the Broncos. Peppermill and Southpoint were down to -6.5 on Monday afternoon, and that's where Jerry's Nugget opened the Rams.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 40.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Jaguars opened at -3 almost all across the board, although Westgate Superbook opened them at just -1.5. That was quickly rectified through the day on Monday, coming in line with everyone else at -3. The total at Westgate also tumbled from an opening number of 41 to 40, and it wouldn't be surprising to see it drop even further with these lockdown defenses and shaky offenses.
Baltimore Ravens (-3, 41) at Tennessee Titans
The Stratosphere had the Ravens opened at just -1.5 after their overtime loss in Cleveland. However, the money flooded in on the Ravens, going up to -3 in about 16 hours. The line has bounced around between -2.5 and -3 at Southpoint through the day on Monday, too.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5, 59)
The most anticipated game of the Week 6 slate will be in Foxboro when the Chiefs and Patriots battle each other on Sunday Night Football. Nearly all shops opened the Patriots at -3.5, although the Strat was offering the Pats at just -3 on Sunday night before getting in line with everyone else.
The total might be on the move, as the Wynn saw the total bump up from 58.5 to 59.5 as of Monday evening, and the Westgate cracked the 60-point barrier on Monday afternoon, a line not often seen in the NFL.
Monday, Oct. 15
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 46.5)
It's a snoozer on Monday night at Lambeau, as the 49ers head to Wisconsin. The biggest news is San Francisco and their injury report, which continues to grow. They're down to one healthy true running back in Alfred Morris, as Matt Breida suffered a high-ankle sprain and is a question mark. To offset that, the Packers have a lot of issues at wide receiver right now, as health is a concern at that position.
The Packers opened at -9.5 at a good chunk of the shops, although Westgate had them at -7.5 early on Sunday before it was quickly bet up to the 9.5 line. TI and the Strat opened them at 9, and the line is now also at 9.5 at the latter as of Tuesday overnight. The total hasn't seen any movement, listed at 46.5 across the board.
11-2 L6 Thurs., 63% +1,936 TY
25-12 L2 Sun., 49-23 This Month
3-1 GPlays, 5-2 Totals, 10-5 L2 Sun
7-3 L2 Sundays, 6-2 G-Plays TY
17-8 L25 Picks, 17-7 L5 Sundays
9-3 L3 Sundays, 10-4 NFL Run
11-4 NFL Guaranteed Plays TY
10-4 L14 Picks, 5-2 L7 Guarantees
9-5 L2 Sundays, 13-7 Totals TY
9-3 L12 Run, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
4-0 L4 Totals, 12-5 L17 Selections
7-2 L9 Guarantees, 13-6 L19 Picks
5-2 Sunday, 2-0 L2 Guarantees
4-1 L5 Thurs., 19-10 L29 G-Plays
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Totals TY
4-2 L6 G-Plays, 11-6 L3 Sundays
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